China tungsten prices remain strong, stimulated by market news, and the bullish attitude of businesses persists within the positive cycle.
On one hand, the recent forecasts of the average prices by the Ganzhou Tungsten Association (GTA) and the long-term contract prices of several representative tungsten enterprises have been successively announced. The trend of significant price increases aligns with the high state of the tungsten market since April, supporting traders' continued firm intentions. On the other hand, a new round of comprehensive environmental inspections by the central government has been launched, with inspections in major tungsten resource-producing areas such as Jiangxi, Hunan, and Yunnan. Industry insiders are concerned that the tensions in the tungsten supply chain will worsen, and the cost pressure faced by tungsten smelting companies will intensify. According to information from Chinatungsten Online, the forecasted average prices for the domestic tungsten market in May 2024 by the Ganzhou Tungsten Association are as follows: 55% black tungsten concentrates at $20,500.0/ton, representing an increase of $2,285.7/ton compared to April; Ammonium paratungstate (APT) at $340.6/mtu, up $3.4/mtu from April; and medium-sized tungsten powder at $45.7/kg, up $4.3/kg from April. According to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the third round of the second batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections has been fully launched. Seven central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams will conduct about one month of inspections in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, and Yunnan provinces (municipalities), coordinating basin-level inspections and provincial-level inspections. In addition, the hedging properties of assets such as gold and copper and the rise in commodity prices continue to increase the hedging attractiveness of strategic resource tungsten. The escalation of global geopolitical risks and the unstable macroeconomic situation will continue to drive strategic asset allocations. Goldman Sachs expects that the "gold rush" by central banks in emerging countries has not ended and will continue to increase gold reserves. It also reiterates its forecast that gold prices will rise to $2,700 by the end of this year. According to central bank data, as of the end of April, China's gold reserves were 72.8 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces compared to the end of March, marking the 18th consecutive month of increasing gold reserves, with a cumulative increase of 10.16 million ounces.